Personal Risk – Is there a Turning Point?
Keywords:Turning point, Piecewise regression, Personal Risk, Motorization rate
Reduction in road fatalities is measured by a reduction in personal risk, calculated by the ratio of the number of road deaths per 100,000 population. The objective of this study is to model personal risk, as a function of the motorization rate, calculated by dividing the number of vehicles per 1,000 population. A piecewise regression model is fitted to the data and both independent variables (motorization rate and turning point dummy variable) are significant in explaining the personal risk. A plot of personal risk as a function of the rate of motorization showed that there are two distinct trends of personal risk. From the early ‘70s throughout half part in the ‘90s, the coefficient of motorization rate is positive. This indicated that for every one unit increases in motorization rate, the personal risk is expected to increase by 0.026. When the motorization rate lapsed 363 vehicles per 1,000 population, the coefficient of motorization rate is negative, where personal risk is expected to decrease by 0.01. Thus, Malaysia road fatalities started to stabilize when the personal risk reached 29.77 deaths per 100,000 population and motorization rate at 363.11 vehicles per 1,000 population. The personal risk, considering the increment in exposures shows that it has reduced since the year 1996.
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